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crossmaker · Joined: 25 Oct 2009 Posts: 31

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290012Z - 290145Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING EXPANDING EWD INTO WRN OK AND NWD INTO SW KS.
AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD
DEVELOP WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS A POSSIBILITY. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
NORTH TX AND SRN OK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. A
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED
BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
SWLY FLOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...THE LINE SHOULD EXPAND NWD INTO SW
KS AND EWD INTO WRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING. THIS SHOULD HELP THE STORMS BECOME DEEPER WITH TIME
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES IN THE LINE. AS THE STORMS
MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP IF THE STORMS CAN OBTAIN A MORE SFC-BASED NATURE.

..BROYLES.. 10/29/2009